Canadian E-Commerce Growth Hit a Near-Standstill in 2025

New Statistics Canada data published May 15 reveals that Canadian e-commerce revenue grew just 2.8% in 2025, down sharply from 27.7% growth in 2024, while global e-commerce expanded at roughly 7%. Analysis from The Hub points to two compounding factors: the elimination of the US de minimis exemption, which made cross-border selling into America far more costly for small Canadian operators, and a longer-term erosion of Canada's entrepreneurial base. The number of self-employed Canadians with paid employees has fallen from 867,000 in 2005 to 716,000 in 2025; a drop of nearly 18% while the population grew by nine million people. Early 2026 data makes it worse: year-over-year growth has dipped further to 2.1%. Analysts warn the damage may be structural, not cyclical.

This is the macro context every client conversation should start with right now. The pandemic-era tailwinds that lifted all boats are gone. Growth now requires better product, sharper marketing, and a real conversion strategy, not just a functioning Shopify store.

Ottawa Puts $66 Million into Canadian AI Compute at Web Summit Vancouver

On May 12, at Web Summit Vancouver, federal AI Minister Evan Solomon announced $66 million in funding for 44 Canadian small and medium-sized businesses through the AI Compute Access Fund; the first tranche of a $300 million program. The fund subsidizes compute costs at 50 cents on the dollar for non-Canadian compute providers and 67 cents for companies using Canadian compute, creating a deliberate incentive to keep AI infrastructure domestic. Supported companies span life sciences, health, energy, advanced manufacturing, agriculture, finance, natural resources, and transportation. The fund was oversubscribed, and the government says additional offers will follow as assessments are completed. The announcement was made alongside a broader conversation about sovereign AI infrastructure, with Ottawa currently reviewing more than 160 data centre proposals to reduce dependence on US tech platforms.

Federal compute subsidies lower the barrier for Canadian companies building AI-powered products, which means more homegrown competition for agencies and platforms alike. For clients exploring AI tooling, the domestic-compute incentive is also worth knowing: building on Canadian infrastructure now comes with a meaningful cost advantage.

Google Marketing Live Is May 20 and Agentic Commerce Is the Main Event

Google Marketing Live 2026 takes place May 20, one day after Google I/O, and this year's keynote is shaping up to be one of the most consequential for Canadian digital advertisers in years. Google has previewed three core themes: AI-powered campaign tools, agentic commerce within Search and Shopping, and an expanded YouTube performance suite. Industry coverage this week points to announcements around AI Max graduating from beta, journey-aware bidding, a 37-month data retention cap on historical campaign data, and new opportunities for brands to appear inside AI Overviews and AI Mode -- Google's conversational search experience. The framing is pointed: Google is no longer adding AI to existing workflows; it is asking advertisers to build campaigns with AI assumed at every stage from planning through measurement.

If you run Google Ads for any client, this keynote is mandatory viewing. The shift to agentic commerce means products and services will increasingly surface inside AI-driven conversations rather than traditional search results pages. Agencies that can translate these announcements into account changes fast will be the ones retaining clients through the transition.

HubSpot Launches Free AI Visibility Dashboard as ChatGPT Referrals Hit a 12-Month Low

On May 14, HubSpot launched AEO Sensor; a free, publicly accessible dashboard tracking real-time shifts in how AI answer engines including ChatGPT, Gemini, and Perplexity treat brands. The launch came alongside a striking data point: ChatGPT sent its lowest volume of referral traffic to businesses in April 2026 compared to any month in the prior year. Organic search traffic for HubSpot customers is down 27% year-over-year overall. AEO Sensor gives any marketer a daily answer engine volatility score, weekly AI-referred traffic trends, and industry-level citation benchmarks without a login or subscription. It sits alongside HubSpot's paid AEO product launched in April at $50 per month, which tracks per-brand visibility across all three platforms.

AEO Sensor is free; there is no reason not to check it for every client today. More importantly, this signals that AI visibility measurement is becoming a standard marketing function. Agencies that are not yet offering AI search audits are already behind.

Canadian Tire Q1: Consumers Are 'Resilient but Selective' as Comp Sales Dip

Canadian Tire reported Q1 2026 results on May 14, posting consolidated revenue growth of 3.3% but a comparable sales decline of 1.0% across the corporation. At the Canadian Tire Retail banner, comparable sales fell 2.3%, with Seasonal and Gardening categories leading the drop due to a slow start to spring. SportChek and Mark's both grew. CEO Greg Hicks described Canadian consumers as "resilient but selective", still shopping, but tightly focused on value and reluctant to spend on discretionary categories without a clear reason. The company has cut prices on more than 10,000 items to retain traffic. On the positive side, loyalty sales outpaced non-loyalty sales, Triangle Rewards membership grew, and Hicks flagged strong early FIFA World Cup fan merchandise sales ahead of games in Toronto and Vancouver.

"Resilient but selective" is the most useful consumer insight in Canada right now. Promotions need a genuine value story, not just a discount. Loyalty programs are outperforming cold acquisition across the board. Any client without a strong retention strategy is fighting uphill.